In the soft copy of the public opinion survey report by the International Republican Institute (IRI) that I have received, the graphs show that if the election were held next week, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) would receive 30% of the vote. In comparison, Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (Jamaat) would receive 26% of the vote.
In the report on the same organisation's survey published by the country's leading English daily, The Daily Star, they wrote that the BNP would receive 33% of the vote while Jamaat would secure 29%. In both cases, the difference between the two parties is 4 percentage points.
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Another important piece of information in the IRI report is that, at this moment, 53% of the Bangladesh's population holds a favourable view of Jamaat, while 51% view the BNP favourably.
Following this, the most crucial information from the survey is that 7% of voters remain undecided, and 11% declined to express an opinion.
A few days ago, in one of my opinion columns in India Today, I indirectly hinted at precisely such a scenario. In that piece, I stated that in 1991, the underdog BNP snatched away the champion's title from the then-assured winner, the Awami League. If the next election in Bangladesh is held without the Awami League's participation, a repeat of 1991 could very well occur.
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