Syria faces growing obstacles to stabilising its fragmented political landscape, experts said on Wednesday, as governance disputes in the Kurdish-led north-east, Druze unrest in Sweida and rising tension with Israel converge in a trio of existential challenges.
The experts, speaking at the Middle East Institute in Washington, warned that without progress on each front, President Ahmad Al Shara’s transitional government will struggle to consolidate control.
Charles Lister, senior fellow at MEI, said the trajectory of Damascus hinges almost entirely on how those three issues evolve over the next 12 months.
“Ultimately, it still comes down to these thorny issues, which are existential for the transition in Syria – the SDF [Syrian Democratic Forces], Sweida and Israel,” he said. “If those three issues are not resolved in 2026, Syria will be in a much trickier place than it is right now, especially the Israel one, which is heading in very dangerous directions, with ministers now saying publicly we’re heading towards war.”
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The warning comes amid rising volatility along the Israeli-Syrian frontier. Israel has carried out repeated incursions into Syrian territory since the toppling of long-time ruler Bashar Al Assad a year ago, as well as carrying out bombings, and has said it wants a demilitarised zone in the country's south.
Mr Al Shara warned on Saturday that Israel's demand for a demilitarised zone in southern Syria would endanger his country and called for Israel to respect a 1974 disengagement agreement.
US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing for a security pact between Israel and Syria, told Israel last week to avoid destabilising Syria and its new leadership.
Exchanges of fire and increasingly belligerent rhetoric from senior Israeli officials have stirred fears of a broader confrontation – one that could not only undermine Damascus’s fragile hold at home but also disrupt diplomatic groundwork for political negotiations.
Barbara Leaf, former US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, described 2026 as “the critical year” for addressing Syria’s most destabilising pressures.
“The Israelis have got to be corralled into doing a proper security framework with Damascus, lest they really destabilise the country,” she said. “And then comes the integration piece with Sweida and the north-east right behind it.”
SDF concerns
Armed members of the Syrian Democratic Forces' (SDF) military police take part in a demonstration under the banner “With our will, we will protect our revolution”, in Qamishli, Syria, September 17, 2025. REUTERS / Orhan Qereman
But progress on those fronts appears distant. Former US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford said the stalemate between Damascus and the Kurdish-dominated autonomous administration in the north-east highlights the obstacles ahead.
The SDF and Damascus agreed in March to integrate the Kurdish-led force into Syria’s natio
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