The latest data on Islamic State attack claims shows a clear geographic shift in where the group says it is operating. While ISIS remains active in Syria and Iraq, the balance of its claimed or ISIS-inspired attacks has moved beyond its former strongholds in the last couple of years.
Between 2019 and 2020, the majority of ISIS attack claims were concentrated in Syria and Iraq. By 2023–24, fewer than one in three ISIS claims came from those two countries, with far more incidents reported elsewhere. The overall number of claims has also fallen sharply, pointing to a weakened organisation territorially, but not one that has disappeared.
That pattern has been reflected in recent events. In the past five days alone, ISIS-linked violence has surfaced in different contexts. Just this week, US personnel were attacked in Syria in what US Central Command said was an ambush by a lone ISIS gunman
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