Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke tops list of favoured candidates to lead Te Pāti Māori in new poll

By Mihingarangi Forbes and Annabelle Lee-Mather Te Pāti Māori's leadership isn't trusted by nearly half of Māori voters and many would prefer Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke to take over, a new poll suggests. Almost half of those surveyed in the Mata-Horizon Research poll believe the party is heading in the wrong direction, and more than 65 percent indicated the recent problems were an important consideration in deciding their vote. But the results also show there's still a desire from voters for the party to remain in Parliament. The poll was commissioned as part of a Mata Reports examination of the ructions in the party this year, Te Pāti Māori: A Kaupapa in Crisis. Months of intra-party turmoil Since June, Te Pāti Māori has been beset by a series of set-backs, including allegations and counter-allegations between MPs and the leadership, culminating in the expulsion of Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākura Ferris from the party. An interim order of the High Court has restored Kapa-Kingi's membership pending a full hearing next year. Two former insiders have spoken out to Mata Reports, criticising the current leadership team and calling for a return to the kaupapa envisioned when the party was founded in 2004. "Those principles, the tikanga that was established, weren't just about being words on a paper, they were the values by which we were expected to not only reflect the political aspirations of our people but how we would behave," says founding member Amokura Panoho. Photo: Mata Reports She believes changes made to the constitution in 2023 saw authority shift from the membership to the executive of the party. "I think that that's concerning and it has led to a lot of the conflict that we have watched unfold. There's a particular style of leadership that is inconsistent with the principles of the party." Former policy director Jack Tautokai McDonald says the party has done "amazing work" since it returned to Parliament in 2020. "But I feel like that is now all at risk because of the debacle over the last few months. And I think that increasingly they are betraying the hopes and aspirations of those who put them there." Mata Reports invited party president John Tamihere to be interviewed for the story but he declined. Poll of Māori voters The Mata-Horizon Research Poll surveyed 328 Māori from December 4-12, and has a margin of error of ±5.4 percent. Respondents were a mixture of people on the Māori and general electoral rolls. Asked how much trust they had in the current leadership team, 47 percent of respondents said "not much" or "none". Another 26 percent said they had "some", while 18 percent said "a lot", and 9 percent said "don't know". Almost half of those surveyed - 47 percent - said the party was heading in the wrong direction, 33 percent said it was going in the right direction, and about one-fifth said they didn't know. When it came to a preferred leader, Maipi-Clarke came out on top with 19 percent. The Hauraki-Waikato MP - the youngest in Parliament - was recently named by Time magazine as one of the world's most influential rising stars. Next highest in the poll was co-leader Rawiri Waititi (12 percent), just ahead of Ferris, on 11 percent. Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer was on 7 percent, Kapa-Kingi was on 6 percent, Tamihere on 5 percent, and new Tāmaki Makaurau MP Oriini Kaipara on 3 percent. Another 37 percent answered "don't know" or "other". The party won six of the seven Māori electorate seats at the last election, and was riding high in the polls at the start of this year, thanks in part to the surge in support for the party-backed Toitū Te Tiriti movement which opposed the Treaty Principles Bill. However, the poll suggests the infighting has done significant damage to the party and could influence voter choices at next year's election. Asked how important recent problems were when it came to deciding their vote, 67 percent said "very" or "somewhat" important. Twenty-seven percent said "not very important" or "not important at all". Only 6 percent said "don't know". Te Pāti Māori has historically mostly won most of its seats in Parliament by winning Māori electorates, which are voted on by people on the Māori electoral roll. In the poll, 71 percent of respondents who said they had supported a Te Pāti Māori candidate in 2023 said they were "very likely" or "likely" to vote that way again if an election was held tomorrow. Only 16 percent said they were "unlikely" and none said they were "very unlikely". Support for the party based on the party vote also appears to be holding up, according to the poll. Labour had 28 percent support in the poll, compared with 31 percent it won with Māori electoral roll voters in 2023. Te Pāti Māori also had 28 percent support in the poll, though this was better than the 23 percent it got from Māori roll voters at the last election. Photo: Mata Reports Hope to 'steady the kaupapa' Political scientist Lara Greaves, an associate...

Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke tops list of favoured candidates to lead Te Pāti Māori in new poll

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