From Venezuela to Ukraine to Iran, there's a much larger shadow war going on

From the Iranian and Venezuelan shadow fleets against which the administration of US President Donald Trump is waging an economic and logistical war, to Russia’s Oreshnik missiles deployed in Belarus, the contours of a dual strategic confrontation are now emerging.

The US war on vessels transporting Iranian and Venezuelan oil and commodities has demonstrated how control over economic arteries can become an effective tool of pressure on the international system as a whole.

The Europeans’ internal debate over Russia’s frozen assets and their possible use to finance Ukraine – set against Moscow’s reinforcement of its military capabilities in the continent’s vicinity, including the Oreshnik missiles – has shortened warning times and raised the cost of any escalation. Money, fleets and missiles have become parallel instruments of warfare. Today’s confrontation is no longer between one weapon and another, or one sanction and another, but rather a multi-layered strategic conflict.

On The Record: What about Russia’s frozen funds? 01:20

Russia’s assets in Europe amount to tens of billions of dollars, held in banks in France, Germany, Britain and Belgium. Using these funds directly to support Kyiv would be a strategic political decision capable of altering the balance of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. However, Europe has been divided over this option, and the US hasn’t supported it.

The EU’s internal debate ended with an agreement to provide a €90 billion ($105.4 billion) loan to Ukraine to cover its expected budget shortfall, after the bloc’s leaders failed to reach a settlement on what to do with Moscow’s assets. The loan will be backed by the bloc’s joint budget and will provide funding for Kyiv over a two-year period.

Nonetheless, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. Does it settle its position on financing Ukraine’s war, or does it remain hostage to negotiations between Washington and Moscow over en