ISIS attacks in the West could signal a dangerous new phase

The roll-call of countries where it is right to claim ISIS never went away has steadily expanded in recent months.

That is certainly underlined by the Pentagon’s action over the weekend to launch a wave of air strikes on the group across Syria. It was also patently clear in the deadly attacks in Manchester and Sydney this year, where ISIS-inspired gunmen pledged their loyalty as they struck in terror.

In January 2024, the group’s propaganda channels used the aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks inside Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent outbreak of war in Gaza to instruct loyalists to kill Jews wherever they can find them. Investigators reportedly believe this was instrumental to both deadly assaults. And to followers of the news in Africa where ISIS loyalists are besieging important capitals, there is little doubt of the resurgence of its influence as a major local power.

It has been clear for a decade-and-a-half that ISIS works along existing faultlines to boost its pulling power. While it has several modes of operation, which I will go into below, it has a single starting point. It wants to pull people into pledging their loyalty to it, carrying its goals to the places where they are based. This is why it is important to recognise that the growth of ISIS is also a creature of the news. The exploitation of the harms and injustices – as received by its audience – is central to the group’s playbook.

A decade ago, European cities in France and Belgium bore the brunt of one phase of the ISIS era that has hallmarks of what is happening today. The faultline that ISIS sought out was centred on laying down differences in lifestyles that could become divisive issues. By spreading horror and fear, the group’s attackers could force open divisions in society.