Gold has surged more than 70 per cent this year fuelled by aggressive central bank buying, a global interest rate cutting cycle and safe-haven demand. The key question now is whether it can hold on to those gains in 2026.
The precious metal was trading at $4,499 at 8.40am on Wednesday after crossing a record $4,500 earlier in the session. It is on track to post a hat-trick of positive annual returns.
“While the long-term bullish case remains intact and selling gold is still difficult to justify, the macro backdrop looks more finely balanced. Central bank demand may not be as relentless at elevated prices, much of the global easing cycle may already be priced in, bond yields remain high, and easing geopolitical tensions could gradually reduce gold’s safe-haven appeal,” says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
“As a result, 2026 may not be super bullish for gold, and the metal could be heading for a long-overdue consolidation rather than a repeat of 2025’s explosive rally.”
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, agrees, saying because prices surged too fast in a too short period of time, a technical correction is probably the biggest downside risk for gold next ye
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