Putin Is a Gambler, not a Grand Master

Nowhere is this more visible than the United States. For nearly 80 years—through the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the fragile new order that followed—the United States viewed Russia as a rival to be contained, not courted. But in the first few months of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, Washington has turned its back on its historic democratic allies and pivoted toward Moscow.

After centuries of trying to catch up with the West, Russia is now using its influence to reshape the politics of Western countries and erode their foundational commitment to the democratic order.

After centuries of trying to catch up with the West, Russia is now using its influence to reshape the politics of Western countries and erode their foundational commitment to the democratic order.

Nowhere is this more visible than the United States. For nearly 80 years—through the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the fragile new order that followed—the United States viewed Russia as a rival to be contained, not courted. But in the first few months of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, Washington has turned its back on its historic democratic allies and pivoted toward Moscow.

Having falsely claimed that Ukraine started the ongoing war with Russia, the Trump administration is now trying to force Kyiv into signing a peace deal that would cede its territory and sovereignty and prohibit it from joining NATO—something that Moscow has wanted for decades. That the United States would pursue a rapprochement with Russia now marks a stunning rupture of its postwar creed.

It’s also a turn of fortune for Russian President Vladimir Putin, considering the state that Russia was in when he took power 25 years ago: with a shattered economy, a weakened military, and few allies. Once an obscure KGB lieutenant colonel, Putin now portrays himself as a geopolitical grand master, shrewdly moving pieces on the world’s chess board. Yet the Russian leader is not executing a master plan but improvising in pursuit of a single goal: staying in power.

Putin’s approach hinges on exploiting Western disunity, capitalizing on moments of retreat, and relying on disruption rather than durable influence.