Our children in 2100 will inherit today’s energy decisions

“2100: An Energy Odyssey” might not achieve the popularity of its Oscar-winning 1968 predecessor, but it is a film that should be made. A child born today has a high chance of being alive, even a president, plutocrat or professor, by the end of the century. What world of energy and climate do we want them to inherit?

Most traditional forecasts, such as those by Opec, the International Energy Agency (IEA) or BP, run to 2050. That is not so far away now: time enough only to fit in two or at best three cycles of spending on energy megaprojects, or to bring a new breakthrough technology from the laboratory to commercial reality. Pretty soon, these august bodies are going to have to extend their horizons to 2060 or beyond.

What we do today matters for 2100. The first oilfield in the Middle East, Masjed-i Soleiman in Iran, is still producing today, 117 years later. The first working solar panel was developed 71 years ago. The world’s oldest nuclear power plant, in Switzerland, is expected still to be operating in 2040, when it will celebrate its 71st birthday.

Big pieces of energy-using infrastructure may hang around even longer: the Skerne railway bridge in England turned 200 this year. And our climatic footprint is heavy: if we do nothing about it, up to 40 per cent of the carbon dioxide released today will linger in the atmosphere for thousands of years, heating our distant descendants.

Much is unimaginable about the technology, society, politics or economy of 2100. But some things are quite predictable. Barring a colossal war, pandemic or environmental collapse, biotech breakthrough, or our replacement with robots, the global population will be between 10 and 11 billion people.

Key highlights from first day of Cop30 climate conference 01:40

The world will have warmed between 1.9 and 3.7°C, unless the climate turns out to be much more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions