This year so much changed in Lebanon - and yet so much more stayed the same

As Lebanon enters the new year, developments in the country have a familiar ring to them. Often, Lebanon appears to enter a new phase of its political development, provoking widespread optimism about its future, only to see traditional power structures re-assert themselves and thwart real change.

A year ago, there was hope that Hezbollah’s defeat in the war with Israel, followed by the downfall of Syria’s Assad regime, would break the stranglehold of Iran and its allies over the country. Later, there was also a belief that financial and economic reform, which had been obstructed since the collapse of 2019-2020 by the political class and sectoral lobbies, and bolstered by Hezbollah’s preference for the status quo, would finally move forward under the reformist Nawaf Salam government.

The picture today is mixed. Lebanon’s government, the most credible in decades, has advanced on several key fronts. Notably, it recently presented a so-called gap law that distributes the $70 billion in losses from the financial collapse, and outlines compensation for depositors. It has also decided to impose a state monopoly over weapons – a move directed primarily at disarming Hezbollah.

The government has also passed other laws, on judicial independence, banking secrecy and restructuring the banking sector, and even a much-needed law imposing filters on neighbourhood generators that supply much of the country’s