As gold prices ended 2025 with serial record highs, bullion bulls foresee even bigger 2026 gains. Many expect gold to again outperform global stocks and almost everything. Maybe. Maybe not.
Regardless, investors who benefitted from the recent boom should now think long, hard and soberly about its role in any portfolio. Gold investing success depends almost entirely on luck, not skill. Let me show you.
I am not forecasting gold’s price. I learnt more than 50 years ago not to do that, up or down – and I make abundant public forecasts. Why? Because no one can forecast gold with any consistency. Therein lies my point.
When I last wrote about gold for The National, back in April 2023, I showed most arguments for owning it are myths – useless in forecasting. I noted at the time that gold is historically far more volatile than stocks and bonds, with little industrial use and lower longer-term gains than stocks. Returns cluster in big booms, big busts and long fallow periods, requiring impeccable market timing … or, more likely, luck.
Since that column, gold meandered through 2023, lagging behind the MSCI World Index. Then came big 2024 gold gains and the 2025 boom – putting gold at record highs. Most experts say tariffs and geopolitical tensions spurred a global flight to “safety” – and that, s
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