The world's superpowers are failing to heed the lessons of regime change

The interventions in Iraq, Libya and Syria over the past two decades stand as stark reminders of the perils of foreign-imposed regime change. These actions, often justified under the banners of humanitarian protection, democracy promotion or counterterrorism, have not only devastated the targeted nations but also inflicted lasting damage on the intervening powers and the broader international order.

Regardless of the very problematic nature of the regimes that were overturned, at their core, these operations violated fundamental principles of international law, eroding the collective security framework established after the Second World War to ensure global peace and stability. This article examines the consequences of these interventions on the principles of international law, with a particular focus on their legal implications, and distills key lessons for the future of international relations – further illuminated by the dramatic fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 and now with the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The UN Charter, adopted in 1945, forms the bedrock of modern international law. Article 2(4) prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, except in cases of self-defence under Article 51 or with explicit authorisation from the UN Security Council under Chapter VII. The principle of sovereign equality, enshrined in Article 2(1), mandates that all states be treated equally, regardless of their size or power. Yet, the regime change pursued in Iraq and Libya, and the prolonged proxy conflict in Syria, exposed the fragility of these norms when confronted by the ambitions of powerful states.

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In Iraq, the 2003 US-led invasion exemplified a disregard for international law. The George W Bush administration invoked a doctrine of pre-emptive self-defence, claiming Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and posed an imminent threat.