Venezuelan oil output could reach 1.2 million bpd by end of 2026 if sanctions are lifted

Venezuelan oil production could rise by up to 400,000 barrels per day, taking output to 1.2 million bpd by the end of 2026, if US sanctions are lifted following Washington’s capture of the country’s President Nicolas Maduro and its plans to oversee the energy sector, analytics firm Kpler said.

But output above 2 million bpd remains unlikely without deep reform and large-scale foreign investment, particularly from US oil companies.

Kpler assumes current production in the Opec member, which holds the world's largest oil reserves, to be about 800,000 bpd – less than 1 per cent of global supplies.

If the US brokers a full political transition and offers complete sanctions relief, Venezuela could see a short-term increase in output between 100,000 and 150,000 bpd within three months, Kpler said. That would bring the country’s overall output closer to 1 million bpd.

The output increase hinges on a couple of developments, including the potential restart of the Petrocedeno upgrader, which converts Venezuelan heavy crude into lighter, more exportable grades. The heavy Merey grade, which is produced from the oil-rich Orinoco Belt, has specialised uses in refineries along the US Gulf coast.

A rebound in production will also be supported by workovers in the Maracaibo Basin, which is largely state-controlled, with Chevron operating through joint ventures with Venezuela’s PDVSA.

Supply growth is expected to slow after that initial increase. By the end of 2026, production capacity could rise to between 1.1 million and 1.2 million bpd, supported by mid-cycle investment and repairs at the Petropiar upgrader operated by Chevron, alongside further well interventions in western Venezuela, Kpler said.

A larger increase of 800,000 to 900,000 bpd by 2028, which would take production capacit