Is there hope for peace in Ukraine in 2026?

After nearly four years of war, an estimated 1.5 million casualties, devastation and near-crippled economies on both sides, a resolution between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive.

The drive for the right mix of concessions and security guarantees will bring political and military leaders together for talks in Paris on Tuesday. Europeans officials are discussing a peace strategy they hope can win the backing of US President Donald Trump. On the front line, questions swirl on both sides about how they want the war to end.

Ukraine has signalled that it is willing to accept a ceasefire – a concession that includes losing a fifth of its territory – provided it receives firm security guarantees from America that will deter any future Russian attack. The bigger question is whether Moscow wants peace while its leaders believe there is a chance of more land being seized, even if it comes at a terrible cost.

Added into the mix is America's more aggressive stance following its Venezuela operations and belligerent talk of annexing Greenland, which could well change geopolitical dynamics.

Corrosive effect of talks

Analysts told The National that discussing a truce demoralises Ukrainian troops as the thinking is “why go to the front line and be the last to die in the war?”

Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine forum at the Chatham House think tank, recently returned from the country where she found the peace process was having a corrosive effect. “A lot of people are asking, why should I volunteer? Why should I mobilise if maybe peace is around the corner?” she said. “This is part of Russia’s game to undermine Ukraine internally.”

Bob Seely, a former British Conservative MP who visits Ukraine frequently, argued that dragging out talks helps Moscow by making the Kremlin appear reasonable, while also sowing division between Europe and the US and buying it time in the ground war.

“These peace processes are also useful for the Russians because they demoralise the Ukr