Will Venezuela Change Trump’s Approach to War?

On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with one of the essay’s co-authors, Comfort Ero, the CEO and president of the Crisis Group. We began by discussing the fast-moving developments in Venezuela after the United States captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on Jan. 3 and brought them to New York, raising questions not only about the future of Venezuela but also about the legality of the operation and the future of international law. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page. What follows here is a lightly edited transcript.

Every year, FP runs an essay titled “10 Conflicts to Watch” in partnership with the International Crisis Group, an independent body that raises the alarm about war. This year’s article lists many of the usual hot spots, including Israel and Palestine, Ukraine, Sudan, and a few lesser-known conflicts such as the ones in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Eritrea, and Myanmar.

Every year, FP runs an essay titled “10 Conflicts to Watch” in partnership with the International Crisis Group, an independent body that raises the alarm about war. This year’s article lists many of the usual hot spots, including Israel and Palestine, Ukraine, Sudan, and a few lesser-known conflicts such as the ones in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Eritrea, and Myanmar.

On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with one of the essay’s co-authors, Comfort Ero, the CEO and president of the Crisis Group. We began by discussing the fast-moving developments in Venezuela after the United States captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on Jan. 3 and brought them to New York, raising questions not only about the future of Venezuela but also about the legality of the operation and the future of international law. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page. What follows here is a lightly edited transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: We have to start with Venezuela. Nicolás Maduro is gone. His vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, is now interim president. What’s your reading of how stable the situation is in Caracas?

Comfort Ero: First, it was quite a dramatic, clinical snatch-and-grab extraction to bring him to the United States to face various charges that the government has set against him. Right now, it’s a Maduro-less Chavista government still in Caracas, so it’s not a full regime change. And it was also a deliberate choice of language by the U.S. government to show that they were dealing with an illegitimate leader who they didn’t believe won the elections in 2024. I think everybody agrees with that.

But we’ve also seen repression and a state of emergency in the country. Of course, Venezuelans are still feeling their way through this change. It’s also important to acknowledge that an overall majority of Venezuelans are happy to see the decline of Maduro.