People generally have little faith in statistics and the overwhelming majority of Russians are convinced that Rosstat deliberately understates inflation. When asked not about their trust in statistics but about how they personally feel price growth (hereafter, “observed inflation”), Russian respondents always give figures that are significantly higher than the official ones. If we compare the population’s answers in relevant surveys with Rosstat’s monthly inflation data, we find that between May 2022 and October 2025, inflation as observed by Russians was on average 1.8 times higher than inflation recorded by Rosstat. If we take the period from late 2015 to May 2022, the gap is even larger — 2.5 times. The problem is that people in every country observe inflation as being higher than the official measure, thanks to well-studied factors that distort their perception.
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