January 2026 has brought Portugal to the threshold of a historic test of its democracy. The far-right Chega party's success in forcing a presidential election to a second round has revived memories of the Salazar dictatorship that the country ended with the Carnation Revolution of 1974. That peaceful revolution, symbolized by carnations placed in soldiers' rifle barrels, created a deep sensitivity toward authoritarian politics. Yet today, democratic institutions and the educated middle class are watching the rise of the far-right with profound concern. This second round, the first in over 40 years, represents more than just the election of a candidate. It signifies an existential choice about the nation's future. In the immediate aftermath of the first round, the center-right and liberal forces declared they would not support Chega, drawing a democratic line in the sand.
To understand this moment, one must look at the powerful domestic currents fueling Chega's rise. The party has successfully channeled a widespread disillusionment rooted in political scandal and systemic failure.
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