Uganda’s Fixed Election Belies an Uncertain Future

The election, in other words, is merely a backdrop. The real question now is not whether Museveni will win but what comes after the 81-year-old dictator exits the stage. With his son consolidating power, internal maneuvering within the ruling party will ultimately determine who succeeds Museveni. But whatever form that transition takes, it remains to be seen whether the regime can contain the social forces it has long tried to manage through repression and patronage.

In January, Ugandans will head to the polls—officially to elect their president but in reality to confirm the inevitable. Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled since 1986, will win again. This will mark his ninth term in power.

In January, Ugandans will head to the polls—officially to elect their president but in reality to confirm the inevitable. Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled since 1986, will win again. This will mark his ninth term in power.

The election, in other words, is merely a backdrop. The real question now is not whether Museveni will win but what comes after the 81-year-old dictator exits the stage. With his son consolidating power, internal maneuvering within the ruling party will ultimately determine who succeeds Museveni. But whatever form that transition takes, it remains to be seen whether the regime can contain the social forces it has long tried to manage through repression and patronage.

Memories of the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 elections remain fresh. In November 2020, at least 54 people were killed during protests following the arrest of opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine.