How Far Do China’s Ambitions Reach?

Many politicians and pundits in the United States argue that China seeks nothing less than global hegemony—in other words, to displace and usurp the United States as the central power in the international system. As a senior member of then-Sen. Marco Rubio’s staff told me in 2022, “Beijing really, truly, does envision a world where they are the hegemon and they create the rules of the road.”

When China introduced new export controls on rare earth metals last October, some observers interpreted the move as the latest example of China’s bid for global dominance—a deliberate show of force meant to compel the West to acknowledge Chinese power. Others have long seen China’s control of the supply of rare earths as a more defensive and even desperate move by a country grappling with slowing economic growth, trade threats, and rising unemployment, particularly among young people, and searching for leverage against the United States and its allies. This disagreement reflects a larger, ongoing debate about the true nature of China’s ambitions, one with significant implications for U.S. policy.

When China introduced new export controls on rare earth metals last October, some observers interpreted the move as the latest example of China’s bid for global dominance—a deliberate show of force meant to compel the West to acknowledge Chinese power. Others have long seen China’s control of the supply of rare earths as a more defensive and even desperate move by a country grappling with slowing economic growth, trade threats, and rising unemployment, particularly among young people, and searching for