ANALYSIS: Nine key factors that may influence 2025 Anambra governorship poll

On Saturday, voters in Anambra State will elect the person who will govern the state for the next four years.

The incumbent governor, Charles Soludo, is seeking reelection under the platform of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

Mr Soludo was first elected on 6 November 2021 and sworn in on 17 March 2022. His first four-year term will end in March 2026.

The governor faces 15 other candidates from various political parties.

Analysts believe that four candidates are the major contenders in the poll: the incumbent governor, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Nicholas Ukachukwu, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), George Moghalu, and the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), John Chuma-Nwosu.

However, the poll is believed to be a two-horse race between Mr Soludo and Mr Ukachukwu.

In this analysis, PREMIUM TIMES highlights the key factors that may influence the outcome of the poll in the South-eastern state.

Security Concerns

Anambra is one of the two South-east states worst hit by insecurity. The other state is Imo. Like in other states in the region, gunmen agitating for an independent state of Biafra have been carrying out frequent attacks in Anambra – killing and abducting people, especially government officials and security operatives.

At least two state lawmakers have been abducted and killed in Anambra in the last three years. The LP candidate in the 2021 governorship election in the state, Obiora Agbasimalo, has not been found since he was abducted in Ihiala LGA of the state a few weeks before that year’s election.

Ahead of the 8 November governorship poll in Anambra, security concerns are palpable in some parts of the state. PREMIUM TIMES can confirm that many residents have deserted some communities within Ihiala and Ogbaru LGAs in the south-eastern state due to frequent attacks by armed persons. Some of these communities are Lilu, Mbosi, Isseke, Orsumoghu, and Azia, all in Ihiala LGA. In Ogwuaniocha, a community in Ogbaru LGA of the state, deadly and frequent attacks have been linked to internal communal crises.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the 2021 Anambra State Governorship Election inconclusive because the commission could not deploy election officials in Ihiala LGA at the time due to insecurity in the council area. A supplementary election conducted later in the area was characterised by heavy security deployment.

John Ojinnaka, an indigene of Uhualakwa community within Lilu town, told PREMIUM TIMES in late October that residents of his and neighbouring communities fled after non-state actors took control of the communities.

“As I speak with you now, four communities in Lilu, including my own community, have been completely deserted.