US-China trade deal 'a ceasefire' in rivalry shaping multipolar world

From the terrace of the Fullerton Bay Hotel, Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, guest of honour at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum dinner, discussed the state of geopolitical issues around the world. He framed it very clearly.

The trade deal between China and the US is something that will allow a set of guardrails to be created with a temporary truce, a temporary stabilisation, a detente if you will.

The next day, I sat down with James McGregor, chairman of communication consultancy Apco's greater China operations. He concurred that this was definitely a detente of sorts and that things had "kinda gotten out of control". The trade deal gives both sides a year to establish a more comprehensive framework with depth. Mr McGregor was quite scathing of how the US ambassador to China, David Perdue, has framed relations between the countries as returning to the halcyon moment of January 1, 1979, when Jimmy Carter established full diplomatic relations with China.

And so, to a certain extent, this is a ceasefire, allowing everybody to take a breather. So where does Mr McGregor see US-China relations at the moment? Well, it's tough for Asia to balance.

It does allow the likes of Singapore, Taiwan and their neighbours, as he said, to avoid the crossfire but remain cautious and less reactive to the chaos.

It became clear in the conversation that Japan was being elevated as a significant counterweight to China. Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has already caused a stir with her recent comments that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

But it's very clear, as we move from a unipolar to a multipolar world, that threading the needle of who will remain closely stitched to the US while balancing strategic sovereign needs is getting even more difficult.

Mr McGregor had just come off a seven-week tour of the region, having spent time in China, a country he previously covered as a journalist. A number of things became clear to him.

To those in the West who think China's restriction of access to Nvidia chips is a serious headwind: yes, it's a challenge, but the Chinese are masters of reinvention and addition.

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