LET’s be honest: The oil market has always been wrong about long-term prices.
Unsurprisingly, it’s currently wrong in anticipating that a barrel of crude will cost around US$60 by 2030, close to current levels.
Barring an economic cataclysm, oil will be more expensive five years from now.
Before the bulls celebrate, however, let me reaffirm that I remain short-term bearish, particularly for the first half of 2026.
Little has changed since late 2024, when I warned the price level that mattered wasn’t US$100-a-barrel anymore, but rather US$50.
Unless the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (Opec+) cuts production significantly, and quite soon, oil prices will weaken further in the next few months, pro
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