Despite genocide, Hamas still acts as a strategic actor

There is a widespread perception that Hamas is an improvised insurgent movement that responds to situations. However, the trajectory of the Gaza war since October 2023 paints a different picture.

Throughout the conflict's multiple stages – political, military, informational and diplomatic – Hamas has demonstrated a long-range strategic capacity not typically associated with fragmented non-state militias, but rather with political entities that think decades ahead. Even in the face of mass displacement, collapsed infrastructure and genocidal violence, its conduct reveals a disciplined, patient and state-like mode of planning. This understanding is essential not only for interpreting Hamas' behavior but also for reassessing how international institutions, regional actors and Western governments have misunderstood or underestimated the organization's strategic depth.

Disrupted Western political consensus

Although Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was immediately framed by the West as irrational violence, its broader implications destabilized a political architecture that had long insulated Israel from public scrutiny. It exposed a widening gap between Western governments and their societies. International legal bodies, human rights organizations and expert institutions began to classify Israeli actions in Gaza as geno