Photo: RNZ file images / 123rf
Explainer - 'Tis the season for political speculation, as pundits attempt to predict the future of National and Labour party leaders.
What happens when political parties decide it's time to launch a challenge against their leadership? As one expert describes, it can trigger a "Shakespearean" battle for power.
To be clear, there's been absolutely no sign there will be a leadership change for National or Labour at this moment in time.
But persistent murmurs about Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's leadership have increased in recent weeks, with senior MP Chris Bishop having to deny he was plotting to roll Luxon, while the Sunday Star-Times on the weekend featured a story by national affairs editor Andrea Vance calling recent actions by Bishop a "failed coup".
Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Luxon's poll rating as preferred prime minister was under 20 percent in September's RNZ/Reid poll and the government's performance rating hit a new low in the recent IPSOS Issues Survey.
But does that all actually add up to a possible leadership challenge before next year's election?
New Zealand history is filled with dramatic moments when confidence in a party leader has dropped and a leadership challenge is held. They've even happened to sitting prime ministers.
Here's how leadership challenges tend to work.
Photo: Supplied / National Party
How does a leadership change happen?
It's as simple as a member of the party caucus calling for a no-confidence vote in its leader. If the party heads up the government, that could mean a change in prime minister if the vote succeeds.
For the National Party, it's a straightforward majority rule vote by the party's MPs.
"Formally, in the case of the National Party the decision rests with the caucus (which the party's constitution refers to as the 'Parliamentary Section'), which can move at any time to replace the leader (who must then be approved by the board)," Massey University professor of politics Richard S
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