CAI MENG/CHINA DAILY
From a global perspective, we anticipate that China-US relations will remain in a state of balance in 2026. Over the long term, the Trump administration's acceleration of the "destructive restructuring" of US hegemony could speed up the internationalization of the renminbi and the overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises.
Domestically, the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has unveiled a top-level design for the country's economic and social development over the next five years. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), China's economic growth rate may reach around 4.8 percent, thereby strengthening the foundation while boosting emerging industries.
We believe that policies aimed at building a modernized industrial system could achieve the effect of "setting everything right with one move", with significant progress expected in technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and the comprehensive rectification of involution-style competition.
Furthermore, policy focus will tilt toward demand to stimulate domestic consumption, with services consumption coming to the fore. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect the macroeconomy to show a mild recovery trend under structural divergence, with economic growth potentially being lower in the first half and higher in the second, exports maintaining resilience, investm
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