Will 2026 see the revival of both Syria and Lebanon?

In the past, the countries of the Levant seemed to point the way to the future; in recent decades, they spiralled into dysfunction and civil war. After the changes over the past year, might the Levant – in particular Syria and Lebanon – be on course to re-establishing sovereignty, functioning statehood and economic revival?

The new governing order in Damascus put a necessary end to the regime of Bashar Al Assad that had become a scourge on its own people and the region. President Ahmad Al Shara is saying the right things and has found strong support from key regional powers as well as the US. But many questions and challenges remain along the path to Syria’s revival.

Will Mr Al Shara make good on his word of forging a nationalist and inclusive state, or will he revert to his past and build an exclusionary Islamist authoritarian state? Will he be able to reunite Syria, or will Syria fall back into warring ethnic and sectarian cantons?

He enjoys considerable support, internally, regionally and internationally, but is also facing strong headwinds: both Iran and Israel oppose his project, and are working to prevent Syria from uniting under his rule; Kurdish, Alawite, Druze and Christian communities in Syria are sceptical – indeed fearful – of what his group’s ascendance means for them; and Mr Al Shara’s own base – which brought him to power – is not on board with his broader nationalist project or his embrace of the US.

Unlike transitions in Libya after Muammar Qaddafi and Iraq after Saddam Hussein, Mr Al S