It is often said that I am a clairvoyant, but looking toward 2026 requires neither prophecy nor bold forecasting. Todayβs economy is no longer driven primarily by numbers, nor guided mainly by models. It is shaped by expectations and sustained, or undermined, by confidence. That is precisely why my strongest wish for the year ahead can be expressed in a single word: trust.
As we approach 2026, we are not merely turning the page on another calendar year; we are also closing the first quarter of the 21st century. This period has been defined by financial crises, a global pandemic, wars, trade conflicts and unprecedented experiments in monetary policy. Yet when viewed in retrospect, these shocks share a common outcome: economic forecasts have failed with increasing frequency. The issue is not a lack of data, but a steady erosion of trust.
The central question confronting economic actors today is no longer βHow fast will we grow?β but rather, βWhat do we believe in?β For households, firms and investors alike, decision-making is shaped less by mathematical projections and more by perceptions of the future.
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