Türkiye at the threshold: Foreign policy tests in 2026

As the world enters 2026, Turkish foreign policy has transitioned into a period of “threshold management.” This period can be defined as a transition marked by the persistence of crises in the immediate neighborhood, the geographical and sectoral expansion of great power competition, and the increasingly visible need for alignment between economic and institutional capacity and geopolitical claims.

During this period, Türkiye has been striving to adopt a diplomatic approach that is flexible, multitracked and focused on crisis management, rather than relying on a single strategic axis. As we enter 2026, the fundamental question is whether this flexibility will translate into a strategic advantage or whether tensions and costs between different issues will accumulate, narrowing the scope for action.

In this context, the general trend in 2025 has been to pursue the goals of maintaining Türkiye’s claim to strategic autonomy more than ever before, while at the same time keeping its position within NATO functional and strengthening the regional security belt. On the other hand, 2025 was a year in which Türkiye learned from strategic and tactical lessons from multidimensional tensions, conflicts and constraints experienced on many levels. The year 2026 may be a year in which these lines of tension, possible conflict dynamics, and constraints are tested, putting Türkiye’s strategic autonomy to the test even more.

Fragmented world politics

The overall outlook for world politics from 2025 to 2026 points to a scenario where four key dynamics are intensifying. The first is the expansion of great power competition, which is taking on a multidimensional character, not only through military balances but also through technology restrictions, supply chains, critical raw materials, data and digital infrastructure, sanctions regimes, and defense-industrial capacity (ammunition production, air defense, unmanned systems, electronic warfare capabilities). Investments in conventional warfare capabilities among global powers, increasing global arms race trends, and military modernization processes stand out as developments aimed at altering the military power balance in great power competition. This situation both expands the bargaining power of middle powers and acts as a serious pressure factor on them.

Secondly, the international security archite