The 14 global trends that will shape the climate in 2026

SOUTH-EAST ASIA (Bloomberg): The world is now moving into the latter half of a critical decade to fight climate change. Scientists have warned that nations need to cut carbon emissions nearly 50% by 2030 to stave off 1.5C temperature rise.

The world is woefully off track to meet those targets and risks further backsliding, even as there are some surprising sources of progress.

In the US, those tensions are on full display. The future of the energy transition is being shaped by President Donald Trump’s climate policy rollbacks that favour fossil fuels - but also the life support for renewables and batteries paradoxically coming from data center power demand.

China’s role as the world’s biggest emitter and hub for green tech are also affecting efforts to curb carbon pollution. This year, the country will set a new plan laying out how climate fits with its economic ambitions, while its booming clean tech sector is expected to help more developing countries adopt renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Here are 14 themes Bloomberg News writers are keeping tabs on in 2026.

Climate clues in China’s new economic blueprint

When Chinese officials gather in March for annual legislative meetings, they will approve the country’s next five-year plan. Climate watchers will be looking to see if the plan does anything to speed up the pace of decarbonization after Beijing set what’s widely seen as a conservative 2035 climate target last year.

The key stat to watch for is China’s target for carbon intensity - that is, a measure of how much it emits per unit of GDP. It’s currently off track of its last five-year plan created in 2020. How much policymakers push to close the gap will be a critical litmus test for China’s climate leadership amid global backpedaling. -Lili Pike

Can diplomats make headway at COP31?

International negotiators will spend much of this year trying to create a bare-bones road map to phase out