An irritated Trump might ask which economy is the biggest perpetrator. For the first time in recent memory, the answer will not be China. Instead, the biggest U.S. trade deficit during the first three quarters of 2025 was with the European Union—around $190 billion , compared to China’s $175 billion . And while China’s surplus with the United States shrunk by 28 percent during this time, the EU’s remained broadly stable compared to the same period one year earlier.
Pity U.S. government statisticians come February, when they release the trade data for 2025—with numbers that are unlikely to please U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite his insistence that tariffs reduce the U.S. trade deficit, available data suggests otherwise. Over the first 10 months of 2025, the goods deficit widened by $77 billion, or nearly 8 percent , year over year. This trend is unlikely to have reversed once the November and December numbers are in.
Pity U.S. government statisticians come February, when they release the trade data for 2025—with numbers that are unlikely to please U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite his insistence that tariffs reduce the U.S. trade deficit, available data suggests otherwise.
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