Gunboat diplomacy

THE Islamic Republic of Iran is bracing for a possible American military intervention amid widespread mass protests that have paralysed the country. The regime faces its gravest internal and external challenge since the revolution nearly five decades ago. The protests, which began a couple of weeks ago because of the deteriorating economic situation, have turned into violent civil unrest. Triggered by the massive devaluation of the Iranian currency and the rising cost of living, the protest initiated by shopkeepers in Tehran has now spread across many parts of the country, with students and other groups joining the agitation. The mounting unrest seems to have encouraged American President Donald Trump to threaten military intervention and go for regime change in the country. He has repeatedly said that America was ready to come to the ‘rescue’ of the Iranian people if the regime targeted the protesters. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!” wrote Trump on his Truth Social platform over the weekend. His warning seems to have stoked the protests. Meanwhile, Israel has also stepped up its campaign for regime change in Iran. The threat of American military intervention has created a dangerous geopolitical situation with far-reaching consequences for regional and global peace. Iran has warned that it would target US military bases in the region in case of an American intervention. The unrest in Iran seems to have encouraged the US president to threaten military action. It will not be easy for Trump to repeat the brazen invasion of Venezuela, however weak the Iranian regime appears to be in the face of grave domestic political instability. Iran said that it was prepared for conflict but also ready to negotiate with the US. “We are not looking for war, but we are prepared for war — even more prepared than the previous war,” warned the Iranian foreign minister. It’s, however, not clear what the two countries would be talking about amid Trump’s gunboat diplomacy. Tehran has always shown its willingness to negotiate on its nuclear programme; however, it will not be prepared to discuss internal political matters with Washington. Moreover, Trump has threatened to take some military action before any such talks. Iran’s position has weakened economically and militarily as a result of the 12-day war with Israel and the American bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities last year. Most alarming for Tehran has been the deep penetration of Israeli intelligence agencies in the country. Many of the attacks targeting Iranian military commanders and scientists, including Iran’s top negotiator on the nuclear issue, were carried out by Israeli agents on Iranian territory, exposing the massive gap in national security. Iran has also received a setback in the regional power game in recent years with the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria and the heavy blow dealt by Israel to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran’s economic crisis has worsened due to the sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries. As a result, Iranian leaders faced intensifying domestic pressures and desperate, angry protests. Initially, the Iranian government sought to placate the demonstrators. But as the protests intensified, the authorities clamped down on them, using brute force that further angered the public. A severe crackdown has led to a high death toll believed to be in the hundreds. Iran has been cut off from the outside world after the government imposed a near-total internet blackout. There has also been a move to project Reza Pahlavi, son of the Shah who was deposed in the 1979 revolution, as an alternative leader for Iran. In the US, where he lives in exile, he appears much more active, guiding the protest through his video messages. But it is difficult for the Iranian public to accept the return of monarchy to the country. The situation, which Trump seeks to capitalise on, is still volatile. According to the American media, Trump has been briefed by his officials on new options for military strikes. “We’re looking at it very seriously,” the US president said. “The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options. We’ll make a determination.” But the threat of Washington’s kinetic action is bound to unite Iranians against external intervention. The massive pro-government rallies in Tehran and other cities this week are seen as a warning against any American intervention in Iran’s internal politics. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said pro-government rallies in Tehran came as a warning to US politicians to “end their deceit”. Iranian officials have warned that in the case of military action, US military bases and shipping lanes will be legitimate targets. It’s an extremely dangerous situation that could plunge the entire region into a wider conflagration. It is particularly a challenging situation for Pakistan, which has a...

Gunboat diplomacy

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