Major international institutions project Pakistan’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year within a close range of three per cent to 3.6pc. However, this variation primarily reflects the timing of their assessments in relation to the 2025 monsoon floods.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast of 3.6pc was formulated in October 2025 and does not incorporate the impact of the subsequent floods. In contrast, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) revised estimate of around 3.25pc and the World Bank’s projection of 3pc are later evaluations that explicitly account for the flood’s dampening effect on the economy, particularly the agricultural sector.
Macroeconomic indicators for the first half of the year (July-December 2025) indicate that full-year growth would be somewhere between 3pc and 3.5pc in the best-case scenario.
Though this exceeds Pakistan’s population growth of roughly 2.6pc, it still r
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