“Cut off the financial lifelines”, Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed shah, told protesters in Iran from his exile in the US last Saturday. He urged key industries to go on strike. A labour standstill in the country's petroleum sector was a central part of the overthrow of his father in 1979.
Iran is again convulsed with unrest. This is the fifth major wave of protest Iran has endured since 2009’s Green Movement, and the most brutally repressed. The regime’s failures mean the only way out is through reinvention, reform or revolution. But whoever or whatever follows supreme leader Ali Khamenei will confront many of the same problems rooted in Iran’s energy sector.
These demonstrations may well be suppressed through violence and fear. The oil industry is not Mr Khamenei’s Achilles heel.
The regime has learnt many lessons from the shah’s fall, and has insured itself against a repeat of the 1978 oil industry strike. Fewer people are required to run the industry these days. Permanent staff at the National Iranian Oil Company are vetted for political reliability and well-paid. A larger periphery of contractors faces insecure employment, but they still earn more than the average Iranian worker, making them reluctant to risk job loss.
Iran’s oil exports grew from a Covid-era low of 0
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