The Philippines Are in for a Turbulent 2026

On perhaps the most important security issue for the bloc, the Philippines has pledged to conclude a legally binding Code of Conduct (COC) in the increasingly contested South China Sea by the end of its chairmanship. The problem: Like many other ASEAN initiatives, this could be largely symbolic, since the text lacks any clear enforcement mechanisms and is unlikely to be legally binding at all. Rather, leaked details of the draft text suggest that ASEAN seeks to codify new compliance measures, such as the need to peacefully negotiate sovereignty disputes; implement confidence-building measures and procedures to manage incidents; and conduct joint oversight to ensure fulfillment of the COC’s obligations.

The year ahead offers the Philippines an opportunity to shape the regional agenda at a critical moment. On Jan. 1, Manila assumed the annually rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which empowers the Philippines to set the agenda and convene the regional bloc on issues it believes are of top concern. As the country’s role as chair comes with intense scrutiny, it also carries a real risk of underperformance. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his administration must navigate persistent intra-ASEAN divisions while hoping against all expectations that neither Beijing nor Washington further complicates matters. For Manila, 2026 will be a year of strategic tightrope walking.

The year ahead offers the Philippines an opportunity to shape the regional agenda at a critical moment. On Jan. 1, Manila assumed the annually rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which empowers the Philippines to set the agenda and convene the regional bloc on issues it believes are of top concern.