Despite Chinaβs βall-weatherβ strategic partnership with Venezuela, Beijingβs response to the forcible seizure of President Nicolas Maduro has been strikingly measured. It has refused to contest American power in a theater of Washingtonβs choosing. Instead of escalating in the Caribbean, China appears to be internalizing the operational and political lessons of Caracas as it refines its long-term calculus for Taipei.
U.S. President Donald Trump inadvertently confirmed this shift when he remarked that the Venezuelan episode set no precedent for Taiwan, adding: βHe [Xi] considers it to be a part of China, and thatβs up to him what heβs going to be doing.β By leaving the initiative to Xi, Trump signaled that the real confrontation concerns the architecture of global power itself. Beijingβs apparently βmildβ reaction is therefore a calculated exercise in temporal discipline.
This strategic patience rests on a deeper historical understanding: empire is a phase
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