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New Zealand's biggest bank has downgraded its forecast for house prices this year, but new research shows not everyone is feeling the same way.
ANZ said house prices had been broadly flat for three years and there was clear evidence the economy had improved in the second half of 2025, which should be a tailwind for the housing market.
"However, house prices are starting 2026 with little momentum, and uncertainty from the upcoming election - including the prospect of a capital gains tax - may keep some buyers on the sidelines this year," the bank's economists said.
"Moreover, the OCR [official cash rate] looks set to rise sooner rather than later after growth and inflation have both come in hotter than the Reserve Bank expected."
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