6 Trump Lessons for Global Leaders in 2026

This year, we asked our writers to distill the lessons of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first year back in the White House—and how global leaders will likely apply these lessons going forward. Much more than during his first presidential term, his administration has revolutionized U.S. foreign policy, blanketing the world with tariffs, downgrading alliances, and seeking accommodation with adversaries. It has been messy and often unpredictable, but foreign leaders are learning how to manage their relations with Washington in a more volatile age.

At the start of each year, we ask some of our columnists to look into their crystal ball and tell us what they anticipate for the year ahead.

At the start of each year, we ask some of our columnists to look into their crystal ball and tell us what they anticipate for the year ahead.

This year, we asked our writers to distill the lessons of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first year back in the White House—and how global leaders will likely apply these lessons going forward. Much more than during his first presidential term, his administration has revolutionized U.S. foreign policy, blanketing the world with tariffs, downgrading alliances, and seeking accommodation with adversaries. It has been messy and often unpredictable, but foreign leaders are learning how to manage their relations with Washington in a more volatile age.

Here are six lessons from Trump’s second term that will shape global politics in 2026.—Stefan Theil, deputy editor

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Lesson for China: How to Play Trump

By Zongyuan Zoe Liu, FP columnist and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations

A red tractor is seen from above pulling planting equipment across a bare field.

While much of the world recoiled at the Trump administration’s tariff ultimatums, Beijing pushed back and emerged from 2025 largely unscathed. The lessons were simple but consequential: Trump is now far more unrestrained, less predictable, and more willing to wield the U.S. economy as a weapon than during his first term. Yet even the sharpest U.S. pressure could be bent, blunted, and occasionally reversed.

Three lessons stand out. First, Trump’s maximalist threats rarely stick. Headline-grabbing tariffs, sanctions, and tech bans often yielded to market pressures, lobbying, or the president’s appetite for any deal he could call a victory. Second, China’s accelerated trade diversification gave it room to absorb U.S. pressure and avoid signaling weakness. Third, targeted retaliation against U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities and politically sensitive constituencies proved far more effective than broad counterstrikes.

Even more revealing was China’s execution of a playbook refined during Trump’s first-term trade war and informed by nearly a decade of experience navigating U.S. export control regimes. Beijing has refined its own export control regime and tested it against Washington by restricting exports of critical minerals and other upstream inputs—not just symbolically but with teeth. The results confirmed what Chinese officials may have long suspected: The U.S. supply chain is brittle.