The lesson of year one of Donald Trump's second term is that a lot of the tariff threats he throws around simply do not happen. Photograph; Allison Robbert/AP
Reality and the rules of economics will catch up with Donald Trump at some stage. But perhaps not for a while yet. For a small country like Ireland, hugely reliant on the US, there are dangers here, though the evidence of Trump’s first year in office is that they may be more over the next three to five years than immediately. Goodness knows short-term turbulence will always remain a risk. But what Ireland really needs to focus on is the medium term and in particular the risk of Trump-driven manufacturing investment in the US threatening Ireland’s jobs and tax revenues.
Short-term risks remain. Ireland could still get caught right in the middle of a damaging trade war. But approaching the midterm elections in November, the US president will probably avoid anything that will slow growth in the US and upset voters – and a trade or wider economic war
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