Within just one month of the new year, African political attention has been pulled in multiple directions – with both world and continental crises demanding urgent responses. At the same time, economic outlooks point to slower trade growth, sustained debt pressure and declining development assistance as donors redirect their resources towards security and defence.
Reactive crisis management can lead to policy failure. Rushed responses to overlapping shocks can jeopardise long-term planning if not anchored in forward-looking frameworks that build resilience.
Several African governments experienced this firsthand during COVID-19. Reliance on short-term borrowing and emergency funding to stabilise economies led to constrained budgets, rising debt-service costs, and reduced fiscal space. In conflict-affected regions, security-first responses have similarly crowded out investments in governance, livelihoods and institutional capacity.
Five structural forces could dominate African headlines this year, shaping the continent’s immediate future.
First is elections as a stress test of legitimacy.
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