To maintain a sense of intellectual continuity, I would like to begin by revisiting some reflections from my article dated Dec. 25, 2025, titled "Why Economic Forecasts Will Fail More Often in 2026." At that time, I drew attention to the fact that we were entering a year when economics would evolve from a technical discipline into a field of psychological equilibrium, causing forecasts to falter more frequently. The global economy is no longer primarily shaped by market cycles. Instead, it is driven by geopolitical decisions, policy interventions, and sudden shocks. Models designed for a predictable world are now being asked to explain an economy governed by uncertainty. As trust in global trade and monetary policy deepens, or rather, as the crisis of confidence deepens, and the economic costs of security-driven preferences rise, forecasting errors become inevitable.
My observations regarding Tรผrkiye were particularly significant.
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