Canada, the world’s ninth-largest economy with a GDP of $2.117 trillion, is expected to elect Mark Carney as prime minister on Monday. But Carney’s success is impossible to understand absent the trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Canada’s economy is tightly connected to the United States, and tensions between the two countries have rarely been higher. Carney has promised to push back on Trump and reconsider the relationship.

Canada, the world’s ninth-largest economy with a GDP of $2.117 trillion, is expected to elect Mark Carney as prime minister on Monday. But Carney’s success is impossible to understand absent the trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Canada’s economy is tightly connected to the United States, and tensions between the two countries have rarely been higher. Carney has promised to push back on Trump and reconsider the relationship.

Has Trump’s trade war against Canada been effective? Why does Canada have trade barriers between its provinces? And how does Canada reconcile its fossil fuel economy with its commitment to climate policy?

Those are just a few of the questions that came up in my recent conversation with FP economics columnist Adam Tooze on the podcast we co-host, Ones and Tooze. What follows is an excerpt,

edited for length and clarity. For the full conversation, look for Ones and Tooze wherever you get

your podcasts. And check out Adam’s Substack newsletter.

Cameron Abadi: As a matter of U.S. policy, is Trump’s trade war with Canada working, by pushing Canada toward recession? Or are the politics actually working against the U.S., with Carney vowing to lead a fight against the United States?

Adam Tooze: The big issues in the election until Trump came on the scene were slow growth, cost of living, and cost of housing in particular. And now Trump emerges on the scene, and the risk really is of recession. Why?