[Arthur Herman] America’s coming boom

Where is America going?

It depends on who you listen to.

Some pundits see its economic outlook as gloomy, if not disastrous. They point out that the affordability issue, i.e. that Americans sense they are paying more for less, isn’t going away; the election of a socialist as mayor of New York City who campaigned precisely on that issue, indicates the opposite. And although the recent government shutdown has ended, President Trump’s economics chief Kevin Hassett predicts it will mean it cuts fourth quarter GDP growth in half — from a projected three percent growth to perhaps one and a half percent. Meanwhile, annual inflation remains stubbornly high, hovering just under three percent.

As for Trump’s effort to raise tariffs, its fate now hangs in the balance in the US Supreme Court. An unfavorable ruling could throw Trump’s recent international trade deals into serious doubt. Meanwhile, America’s leading tech corporations are cutting jobs on every side, with many blaming AI for the employment losses.

According to The Economist/YouGov’s latest tracking poll, 62 percent of independent American voters now say the economy is “getting worse,” the highest level since the summer of 2022. NYU economist Laurence White says Trump can no longer blame his predecessor Joe Biden for his economic woes: “It’s his economy now,” White says, with ill-disguised relish.

In fact, White is correct — but not in the way he imagines. The truth is, for the last nine months Trump has been busily laying the foundations for an American economic boom in 2026.