After a year of breathtaking changes in the Arab world, what awaits in 2026 is hard to predict

With the speed and breadth of change in the Arab world and surrounding region in the past year, making sense of individual developments can be challenging, let alone predicting how the trajectory of change in the region will unfold in 2026. However, the fundamentals of good governance, job creation and peace-making remain vital for a positive outcome for this year.

On the last day of 2025, while much of the world was on leave, four major developments occurred that will likely shape how 2026 will unfold in the Middle East. Some were expected, others less so. First, the UAE withdrew its remaining troops from Yemen. Second, the pace of protests picked up in a number of Iranian cities. Third, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump and informally launched his election campaign. Fourth, the UN ended its mission in Iraq after two decades in the country. The significance of each event stands on its own merit and also contributes to a trend of new positioning for a number of countries of the region.

Yemen was perhaps the least expected area of dramatic change in the region as 2025 was ending, yet it is where key issues converge: the threat of armed groups and the short-sightedness of ignoring them, the failure of political processes to end wars and regional dynamics affecting domestic rivalries. A fragmentation among the anti-Houthi alliance means that, once again, militants benefit from the failure of political forces to agree on how best to rule Yemen. The Houthis remain largely intact, despite continued attacks on international shipping and a lack of seriousness in the political process to end the bitter war since 2014.