Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is quietly recalibrating his regional posture. Rather than moving closer to the Abraham Accords framework, he is loosening Saudi Arabia’s alignment with Israel and the United States while edging toward Turkey and Qatar.
This is not a tactical adjustment; it is a strategic bet – one built on the assumption that Iran’s regime will endure and that the regional order will not shift abruptly. If that assumption holds, MBS gains flexibility. If it fails, Saudi Arabia risks finding itself aligned with the future destabilizers of the Middle East.
Benefiting without commitment
For years, Riyadh benefited from the Abraham Accords without formally joining them. Israel, the United States, and the UAE created a powerful security and intelligence axis that constrained Iran and reshaped regional deterrence.
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