On Polymarket, ‘privileged’ users made millions betting on war strikes and diplomatic strategy. What did they know beforehand?

In the early hours of 13 June, more than 200 Israeli fighter jets began pummeling Iran with bombs, lighting up the Tehran skyline and initiating a 12-day war that would leave hundreds dead.

But for one user of the prediction market Polymarket, it was their lucky day. In the 24 hours before the strike occurred, they had bet tens of thousands of dollars on “yes” on the market “Israel military action against Iran by Friday?” when the prospect still seemed unlikely and odds were hovering at about 10%. After the strike, Polymarket declared that military action had been taken, and paid the user $128,000 for their lucky wager.

But was it just luck?

Polymarket is an online platform where people can bet on just about anything, from what the most-streamed song on Spotify will be to how many times Donald Trump will say “terrible” that day. Under Joe Biden, the unregulated site was banned in the United States, although it could be accessed with a VPN. Now, over $100m worth of bets are now placed on Polymarket each day.

The user who had placed the bet was new to Polymarket. Since then they have lodged five bets on similar markets like, “Israel announces end of military operations against Iran before July?” and “Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?” All have been successful, making further profits of more than $28,000.

The Guardian’s analysis of blockchain data traced the wallet to an X account with its location set to Beit Ha’shita, a kibbutz in northern Israel. The user recently transferred their bets to two other accounts, data shows, potentially to avoid detection. There, they currently have 10 live bets relating to Israel’s military strategy.

The X user behind the account could not be reached for comment but Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Agency have opened an investigation into the user, officials said last Thursday.

Unlike sports betting sites like DraftKings, where users have to scan their IDs before they are able to place a bet, Polymarket is built on a blockchain. Accounts are linked to crypto wallets that can be publicly traced but are difficult to link back to an individual. So, even though the company is headquartered in the US, its markets are global and the users anonymous.

Online prediction markets found mainstream traction in 2024 by letting everyday Americans wager on the US presidential election.

Americans were already becoming hooked on online gambling after the 2018 supreme court ruling that legalized sports betting. But that election supercharged the desire to bet: the twists and turns of the presidential race meant it already felt like a spectator sport.

Polymarket’s virality was initially powered less by manosphere influencers. Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy broadcast election odds to more than 200 million followers, right-leaning X accounts weaponized the markets, which were predicting a Trump victory, against mainstream polls, which showed a tight race. Crypto streamers pitched political betting as just another high-risk, high-reward trade.

Since then, Polymarket and its rival Kalshi have gamified all corners of life – from tomorrow’s weather to Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl outfit – and in effect, turned reality itself into a casino.

To bet on an outcome, users buy either a “yes” or “no” event contract.