How by-elections will shape President Ruto and rivals' 2027 game plans

The outcome of the November 27 by-elections is promising to act as a barometer for President William Ruto in choosing new strategic partners, including pre-election power-sharing deals ahead of the 2027 General Election.

A poor performance in some of the strategic seats like Mbeere North, Malava and Kasipul constituencies could force President Ruto to recalibrate his alliances and how to negotiate with partners and opponents ahead of his re-election bid.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga are some of the key political players who could either become beneficiaries or casualties of the hotly contested mini-polls.

ODM chairperson, Gladys Wanga. Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group

President Ruto has kept off the campaigns, a move pundits believe could be deliberate in gauging the individual political clout of his allies in the said areas.

Analysts note that the outcome is likely to have a bearing on President Ruto’s pick for running mate. Prof Kindiki, who hopes to retain the position going to the next election, is facing a major hurdle in delivering Mbeere North as proof of his influence in the larger Mt Kenya region.

For Deputy President Kindiki, whose rural home is 21 kilometres away in Tharaka-Nithi, a loss would mean a blow to his credibility as the mountain’s new custodian. It would also signal a drifting support base for the region that swept Dr Ruto to power in 2022, effectively exposing Prof Kindiki’s soft underbelly.