World Cup draw: Who is most likely to win? Ranking all 64 teams

The World Cup draw is almost here, so we can really start getting excited about the tournament next summer.

There are technically 64 teams in the draw: 42 have definitely qualified, then there are 16 competing for four places from Europe, and six from the other confederations battling it out for two places in the intercontinental play-offs.

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This is about the time, with the whole competition about to be mapped out in front of us, when we can start thinking about who might win the whole thing. So we have taken the not inconsiderable task of ranking, from one to 64, which teams look like the most likely to be on that podium in New Jersey on July 19.

A few of these rankings might look a bit odd, because some teams yet to qualify have been placed higher than others that have, but this is an assessment of the teams’ quality: realistically, the 17th-best team in Europe is going to be better than the best team from Oceania.

You will all have your own opinions — feel free to share them in the comments. But think of this as a guide to how the tournament might pan out, rather than a deeply serious prediction. Exciting, isn’t it?

1. Argentina

FIFA ranking: 2

Not only are Argentina the reigning champions from Qatar in 2022, but they also won back-to-back Copa America titles in 2021 and 2024. For recent pedigree, can we really look much further? With the same manager, Lionel Scaloni, and the same GOAT, Lionel Messi, their status as favourites is deserved — albeit Messi really is getting on a bit. He turn 39 during the tournament.

Lionel Messi lifts the Copa America trophy in 2024 (Miguel Rodriguez/Anadolu via Getty Images)

2. Spain

FIFA ranking: 1

It’s a little odd to think Spain weren’t really many people’s top choice to win Euro 2024, but as the tournament progressed, it became clearer and clearer they were the best team in Germany. Their incredible array of young, attacking talent is still maturing, which is pretty terrifying for everyone else. It will take some effort to stop them.

3. France

FIFA ranking: 3

Hmm, on paper, France should probably win it? They arguably have the strongest XI in the tournament and their whole squad is strewn with enviable riches, especially in their Kylian Mbappe-led attack. Didier Deschamps’ task, in his final tournament before stepping down, is to knit it all together, but that didn’t happen at Euro 2024 when dreary France never convinced.

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4. England

FIFA ranking: 4

Years of disappointment mean English fans can find it difficult to believe they’re among the favourites for the World Cup. But speak to people from any other country and they will tell you Thomas Tuchel’s side are right up there, and rightly so: their results were flawless in qualifying, they possess great depth, have a Champions League-winning manager and reached two finals in their past three tournaments.

Harry Kane and England have been beaten finalists at the past two European Championships (Zhizhao Wu/Getty Images)

5. Brazil

FIFA ranking: 5

Brazil are overdue a World Cup win… their last one was so long ago, it was when original Ronaldo had a quarter of a haircut. After a chaotic qualifying campaign, can we really expect them to challenge, or will it be another early exit against European opposition? Manager Carlo Ancelotti, a serial winner, could be their trump card.

6. Netherlands

FIFA ranking: 7

It almost feels like the Netherlands having an incredibly strong team has snuck up on us. They have reached the latter stages at tournaments in recent years without ever really having a group of players you could get excited about, but not anymore. Virgil van Dijk is the experienced outlier, but the rest are all in their mid-twenties and maturing at the same time. Expect big things.

7. Portugal

FIFA ranking: 6

The winners of the 2025 Nations League (plus the 2019 Nations League and the 2016 Euros) have never reached a World Cup final. Will 2026 be their year? The talent is there, but they’re a little down this list because question marks loom over Roberto Martinez’s tactics and how he uses that guy Cristiano Ronaldo, who will be 41 next summer.

Could Cristiano Ronaldo win the World Cup, a